The Dallas Mavericks welcome the New Orleans Pelicans to the American Airlines Center on Friday, November 21, 2025, at 8:30 p.m. ET — a game that feels less like a routine matchup and more like a lifeline for two franchises drowning in mediocrity. Dallas sits at 4-12; New Orleans is worse at 2-13. Neither team has found rhythm, yet the stakes feel higher than the win-loss records suggest. Why? Because in the brutal NBA landscape, every home win matters — especially when you’re fighting to stay relevant in the Western Conference playoff race.
Two Teams, One Common Problem: Consistency
The Mavericks lost their last two games, including a heartbreaker 113-111 defeat to the New York Knicks, where D’Angelo Russell and Naji Marshall each dropped 23 points — a rare offensive spark that didn’t translate into victory. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are on a seven-game skid, their most recent outing a 11-point performance by Trey Murphy III that felt more like an anomaly than a resurgence. Murphy, who’s averaging 19.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists this month, has shown flashes — 35 against the Lakers, 20 against the Warriors — but the Pelicans’ defense continues to leak like a sieve. They allow 115.8 points per game on the road, the third-worst mark in the league.
It’s not just scoring. Dallas averages just 112.6 points at home, below league average. New Orleans scores 109.4 away — even worse. The projected over/under of 233.5 points (per FOX Sports) feels almost generous. The two teams have combined for an average of 219.2 points in their last 10 games. That’s 14.3 points below the line. And yet, 60% of Pelicans games have gone over, while only four of the Mavericks’ 16 games have cleared 233.5. Something’s got to give.
History Favors Dallas — But Not Always
Head-to-head, the Mavericks own the edge. In 52 all-time meetings, Dallas has won 32 — 20 of those at home. The trend is even starker in recent home games: the Mavericks have covered the spread in six of their last seven against New Orleans at the American Airlines Center. That’s not luck. It’s familiarity. The Pelicans haven’t won in Dallas since March 2023, a 113-106 upset that now feels like a distant memory.
But here’s the twist: the Pelicans are 7-7 against the spread as underdogs of 3.5 points or more this season. They’ve covered in eight of 15 games overall. That’s not the record of a team that’s done. It’s the record of a team that’s scrappy, resilient — and maybe, just maybe, due for a breakout.
Who’s Playing, and Who’s Under Pressure?
Trey Murphy III is the Pelicans’ brightest spot. Shooting 38.1% from deep on 3.0 threes per game, he’s become their only consistent offensive weapon. Derik Queen, their second-leading scorer at 11.7 points and 6.4 rebounds, has quietly been a defensive anchor — 0.9 blocks and 1.1 steals per game. But without a true playmaker to feed him, his impact is limited.
For Dallas, the burden falls on Russell and Marshall — but they’re not the only ones. Klay Thompson, back from injury, is averaging 2.3 three-pointers per game and has hit 3+ in three of his last five. FOX Sports and Covers.com both recommend betting on Thompson Over 2.5 threes — a smart play if he’s healthy. The Mavericks’ defense, meanwhile, is a mess: 32% from three, 75% free throw shooting, and 8.6 steals per game. They’re not bad — just inconsistent. And in a game where both teams are shaky, that’s enough.
Betting Trends and Expert Picks
Here’s the oddity: 75% of bets and 75% of the money are on the Mavericks to cover the -3.5 spread. But the line hasn’t moved. That suggests sharp money is fading Dallas — and that’s worth noting. The over/under is split between 228.5 (Covers.com) and 233.5 (FOX Sports). Action Network’s data shows the total has gone over in three of Dallas’s last five games — but five of their last 11 home games. That’s a mixed signal.
FOX Sports predicts a 117-112 Mavericks win, with the under hitting. Scores24.live, meanwhile, expects the total to exceed 226.5 — which it almost certainly will. Given the teams’ shooting inefficiencies, a low-scoring, grinding game feels more likely than a shootout. But NBA games between struggling teams often go wild in the final five minutes. That’s when desperation takes over.
What This Game Really Means
For Dallas, a win here isn’t just about climbing out of the West’s basement. It’s about proving they can win when it counts — without Luka Dončić. The team’s identity is in flux. For New Orleans, it’s about proving they’re not a tanking team. Zion Williamson’s return is still months away, but Murphy, Queen, and Jose Alvarado are showing they can compete. This game is a litmus test: are they building something, or just waiting for the draft lottery?
The crowd at the American Airlines Center will be thin. The energy? Uncertain. But in the quiet moments before tip-off, when the arena lights dim and the scoreboard flickers to life — you’ll hear the echo of something louder than stats or spreads. The sound of two teams trying not to quit.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this game affect the Mavericks’ playoff chances?
Dallas is currently 13th in the Western Conference, 5.5 games out of the final playoff spot. A win here improves their record to 5-12, keeping them mathematically alive but unlikely to make the playoffs without a dramatic turnaround. They need at least 12 wins in their next 18 games to have a realistic shot — and this is their first of three straight home games against lottery teams.
Why is the over/under so inconsistent across sportsbooks?
The discrepancy between 228.5 and 233.5 reflects conflicting data: the Pelicans have gone over in 60% of their games, but the Mavericks have only hit the over in 25% of theirs. Bookmakers are split on whether Dallas’s sluggish offense or New Orleans’s defensive collapse will dominate. The 5-point gap is unusually wide, suggesting low confidence in either team’s ability to score efficiently.
Is Trey Murphy III a reliable bet for over 19.5 points?
Yes. Murphy has cleared 19.5 points in 8 of his last 10 games, including three 30+ point outings. Dallas’s perimeter defense ranks 24th in the league, allowing opponents to shoot 37.2% from deep. Murphy’s 38.1% three-point shooting makes him a high-probability target — especially if the Mavericks focus on stopping Derik Queen inside.
What’s the historical significance of this matchup?
Since 2010, the Mavericks have won 14 of the last 18 meetings against the Pelicans, including 10 of 12 at home. The only time New Orleans won in Dallas since 2020 was in 2023 — a game where Zion Williamson played 32 minutes. Without him, the Pelicans have lost their last five trips to Texas. This is a classic case of home-court dominance in a lopsided rivalry.
Could this game be a turning point for either team?
Absolutely. A Mavericks win could spark a short winning streak — they face the Spurs and Rockets next. A Pelicans win, however, would be their first since November 2 and could shift locker room morale dramatically. For a young team with no All-Stars, belief matters more than stats. This isn’t just about points — it’s about proving they belong.
